Introduction to Five Scenarios

There are five main ways to explain the footage that Talal abu Rahma shot at Netzarim Junction of Muhamed and Jamal al Durah. Four of them assume that the boy was indeed shot. The first one we consider, shot by the Israelis on purpose, is the one that both Talal and Jamal have insisted upon. The second, shot by the Israelis by accident, is one that many people, accepting most but not all of the eyewitness testimony, find most plausible. The third and fourth, Palestinians by accident and on purpose, reflect a closer knowledge of the situation, both in terms of the unlikely prospect of Israeli bullets hitting the two given the protection afforded by the barrel, and in terms of the likelihood that the two bullets that do hit the wall over their heads during the footage come from the Palestinian side. The fifth scenario – staged Pallywood scene – represents a completely different approach, one that questions the totality of the eye-witness accounts. It has, as a result, seemed the least likely to people unfamiliar with the details.

We present you all of these scenarios with the evidence for and against each one, linked to the appropriate footage, for you consideration. We invite you to weigh the evidence and the arguments, to propose your own thoughts and observations, and to send us your estimation of the plausibility of each of the scenarios on a scale of 1-100. Hence if you think a scenario highly likely, you could give it a 90% plausibility rating (or higher), and conversely if it seems highly unlikely, a 10% plausibility rating (or lower). We will try and keep updated with the suggestions of the readership. Please do not just send in your ratings but also your reasoning. This is not a popularity contest.