SCENARIO 3: PALESTINIANS BY ACCIDENT

* Those who adhere to this scenario: This seems to be the favorite position of many who have examined the evidence enough to register how unlikely scenarios 1 and 2 are (e.g., James Fallows) and of most who have read or seen their analyses. It appeals especially to those who do not want to raise deeply troubling and politically incorrect scenarios (Scenario 4) or be accused of conspiracy theories (scenario 5). It includes some mainstream journalists who have investigated, as well as Jewish and Israeli leaders. It constitutes the minimalist position of those who have looked at the material: the Israelis almost surely did not do the shooting.

FOR AGAINST - Most of the recorded gunfire seems to come from the Palestinian side: The AP filmed a Palestinian policeman shooting from directly behind the al-Durah’s position, and the boy’s gaping stomach wound suggests an exit wound, so it’s possible that this gunfire hit Mohammed. - Palestinians tend to fire wildly, even when they can’t see where they’re shooting, over fences or into holes in walls (see Pallywood movie). - The two shots that hit the wall by the barrel come from the Palestinian position. Ballistic tests show that bullets coming from the angle of the Israeli position that day would have produced large clouds of dust kicking off behind the barrel, but bullets shot from head on would produce small round circular dust clouds before the wind blew them away. These two identifiable shots, which can explain the terror on the faces of father and son, come from the Palestinian side, possibly the “pita.” - Fire from head on seems deliberate: The two shots are individual, not the product of “wild machine gun fire”, and the Palestinian gunmen who shot them would have had to miss their mark by almost ninety degrees in order to have shot them by accident. Jamal claimed that eight bullets hit him and four hit Mohammed. One or two bullets is an accident; twelve is not. - All the evidence that indicates that the boy was not shot: see Scenario 4 “against” or Scenario 5 “for.”

Plausibility Index:

Links to those holding this position:
Yom Tov Samya
Esther Schapira
James Fallows